IMEC Project Against the Belt and Road Initiative: The Emerging Geoeconomic Battleground

The global order is undergoing a profound transformation, and the battle lines of this shift are being drawn in the economic arena. As major powers jockey for dominance in the new world order, the spotlight is firmly fixed on the evolving economic landscape. Recent gatherings of the BRICS and G20, which bring together nations like Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, have set the stage for this economic competition. An important development that emerged from the G20 Summit in India is the announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC, a project that holds the potential to rival China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

The IMEC project, introduced jointly by leaders from the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, Italy, and the European Union, aims to establish a vast railway and port network connecting India to the Middle East and the Middle East to Europe. This initiative holds great promise for economic development by expanding trade connections across Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. IMEC consists of two main corridors: the Eastern Corridor, linking India to the Middle East, and the Northern Corridor, connecting the Middle East to Europe. Spanning three continents and interconnected by rail, road, and sea routes, IMEC’s primary objectives include securing regional supply chains, reducing costs, and fostering extensive integration among the three regions.

Insights from Leaders

The countries involved in this agreement are moving swiftly, with plans to formulate the project within 60 days. However, as of now, the details are still scant. Notably, U.S. President Joe Biden has described IMEC as a groundbreaking step, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone as far as calling it the « largest cooperation project in history ». He emphasizes Israel’s central role in the initiative, despite Israel not being a signatory to the agreement. Israel’s Haifa Port is set to become a pivotal transit point in this project.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen believes that IMEC represents the most efficient route between India, the Middle East, and Europe, predicting a 40% reduction in transportation time and costs. This could significantly expedite cargo shipments between India and Europe, a route that currently takes 20-25 days through the Suez Canal, though a direct cost comparison between rail and sea transport is not yet available.

Saudi Arabia plays a critical role in IMEC. Recent developments have seen Saudi Arabia strengthening ties with China and attempting to ease tensions with Iran, suggesting that IMEC might be part of the U.S.’s strategy to draw Saudi Arabia closer to Israel and away from China. Additionally, the U.S. aims to distance India, a key player in BRICS and G20, from the China-Russia axis, which recent developments seem to support.

The Missing Piece: Turkiye

Turkiye, an essential regional player, is notably absent from the IMEC project, as indicated on the project maps. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been vocal about the necessity of Turkiye’s involvement, stating, « There’s no corridor without Turkiye. The best route for East-West traffic should go through Turkiye. » This sentiment evokes memories of the « Development Road Project », a 1,200-kilometer railway and highway connecting Turkiye to the Persian Gulf’s Fav Port, often referred to as the new Silk Road. This project aims to offer a faster and more cost-effective alternative to the Suez Canal route and aligns with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, specifically the Middle Corridor involving Turkiye.

It’s uncertain if IMEC could provide an alternative route to the Suez Canal, as Turkiye’s participation is absent from the official maps. This situation is reminiscent of the 2021 G7 Summit, where an alternative plan to China’s Belt and Road Initiative was introduced but lacked a roadmap due to insufficient financing, as highlighted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

How will IMEC Function ?

The IMEC project faces formidable challenges, particularly in constructing a railway network across challenging terrains like the Balkans and Gulf deserts. The project’s financing remains uncertain, with the U.S. presenting it as « Rebuild a better world » at the G7 Summit. Nevertheless, it might encounter delays akin to the EU’s « The Global Gateway » announced in 2021.

Maps of the corridor indicate Greece’s Piraeus Port as the entry point to Europe, although official confirmation is pending. Intriguingly, 67% of Piraeus Port is owned by the Chinese company COSCO, suggesting that the transfer point might shift to Italy rather than Greece. Italy’s efforts to entice China to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative might be linked to this development. If Greece is included in the route, other options like Kavala, Volos, and Dedeağaç could also be considered.

The Geostrategic Significance of IMEC

IMEC emerges as a pivotal geoeconomic and geostrategic project, with India and Saudi Arabia at its core. This initiative guarantees India’s energy supply, especially in the Middle East, solidifying India’s position as a major player alongside the USA and China. India has ties with groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where China and Russia wield significant influence. However, the long-term sustainability of this initiative remains uncertain, and India’s role as a bridge between these global poles could inadvertently reinforce bipolarity rather than multipolarity.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, also part of this initiative, seem to be seeking ways to mitigate the potential fallout from a new Cold War. Diplomatic efforts and complex economic projects aim to minimize long-term damage. While some Chinese experts dismiss the U.S. corridor plan as « talk without much substance », they perceive it as a clear countermove against China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The primary objective of the USA in this initiative is to isolate China from the Middle East. The Belt and Road Initiative is a massive project aimed at connecting Asia with Europe and Africa, tracing ancient Silk Road routes. Over the past decade, the initiative’s total investment has approached $1 trillion, significantly contributing to global economic growth. Data from the World Bank reveals that China’s trade volume with Belt and Road countries reached $9.2 trillion between 2013 and 2020, with direct Chinese investments around $140 billion.

The IMEC project, however, requires substantial resources, enforcement capabilities, and a complex institutional mechanism, and it remains uncertain to what extent these will be available and effectively put into action. Additionally, recent events in Israel and Palestine further complicate the future of this initiative.

In conclusion, it’s evident that IMEC represents a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The world teeters on the brink of a new Cold War, with the ongoing rivalry between the USA and China shaping global politics and international cooperation. On one side, it pushes for a bipolar alignment, while on the other, it paves the way for a non-aligned stance, led by India. As IMEC unfolds, it will be a pivotal player in this evolving global landscape, influencing the future direction of the international economy and geopolitics.

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